天凉好个秋

 

先贴点搞笑，看得我笑坏了。。。。

 

*Somali Pirates apply to become bank, aim to access TARP
*Paulson: TARP pirate equity is an 'investment' - will pay off
*Kashkari says 'Somali pirates are 'fundamentally sound''
*Moodys upgrades Somali pirates to AAA
*Somali pirates in discussions to acquire Citibank
*Fed officials: aggressive easing would cut Somali pirate risk
*Fed agreed Nov 2 to take 'whatever steps' needed for Somali pirates
Somali Pirates in Discussions to Acquire Citigroup
 
 November 20 (Gloomberg) -- The Somali pirates, renegade Somalis known
for hijacking ships for ransom in the Gulf of Aden, are negotiating a
purchase of Citigroup.

The pirates would buy Citigroup with new debt and their existing cash
stockpiles, earned most recently from hijacking numerous ships,
including most recently a $200 million Saudi Arabian oil tanker. The
Somali pirates are offering up to $0.10 per share for Citigroup, pirate
spokesman Sugule Ali said earlier today. The negotiations have entered
the final stage, Ali said. ``You may not like our price, but we are not
in the business of paying for things. Be happy we are in the mood to
offer the shareholders anything," said Ali.
The pirates will finance part of the purchase by selling new Pirate
Ransom Backed Securities. The PRBS's are backed by the cash flows from
future ransom payments from hijackings in the Gulf of Aden. Moody's and
S&P have already issued their top investment grade ratings for the
PRBS's.
Head pirate, Ubu Kalid Shandu, said "we need a bank so that we have a
place to keep all of our ransom money. Thankfully, the dislocations in
the capital markets has allowed us to purchase Citigroup at an
attractive valuation and to take advantage of TARP capital to grow the
business even faster."
Shandu added, "We don't call ourselves pirates. We are coastguards and
this will just allow us to guard our coasts better."

 

最近工作：

前段时间一直很忙，常常周末加班，不过忙到现在大家也适应了。因为常常市场出点事情现在出什么事也不很意外了。目前影响市场的的大事大概有：Citi, BHP/Rio, BCE, 还有印度。不过也还好，很多基金都deleverage了，大家也都做好了过冬的准备。

 

最近生活：

最近常常去gym，渐渐可以半个小时跑3迈了，不过体重还是很重！

常常吃喝玩乐，常常打牌。

常常看湖南卫视 ：（

还是觉得觉不够睡。

需要表扬的是开始常常读Economist，表扬，鼓掌。 ：）

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

最近一周真是风起云涌，连我们老板都说，这是70多年来最不可置信的一周。 发生了太多
的事情，几乎每天都有爆炸性新闻，每天工作都很累很久很高强度。不过，在现在情况下
，能有工作可做，我已经没有什么可以抱怨了。

下面是Tina作为一个在风暴中心的小罗罗在本周里觉得比较有趣的一些感悟。如果有错还
请大家指正咯。另外还有好多不明白的事情，盼解答。

***********关于CDS*********

在上周的上半周里，最严重的影响在于CDS市场做不动了。CDS  value protection=f(pro
b_default_reference_entity*(1-prob_default_counterparty))。 通常情况下(1-prob_
default_counterparty) is assumed to be 1. 而现在，一些银行（counterparty）的CD
S 飞涨，也就是说，at extreme levels of spread, the CDS actually rallies, parti
cularly, as in many cases now, where prob_default_counterparty>prob_default_re
ference_entity. This is the reason why CDS market is broken currently.

**********关于short stock and convertible bond*******

下半周后，政府规定不能卖空金融板块股票，影响巨大。option难以用stock hedge以外，
影响最大的莫过于convertible bond市场。Traditional  convertible arbitrage strat
egy is: long convertible bond, short stock (delta hedge), long CDS (credit hed
ge), short US treasury (rate hedge), leaving holder with only long gamma and l
ong vega.   而现在一来，股票不能卖空了，CDS也做不动了，整个Convertible bond市场
就没有了流通性。Convertible arbitrage funds will be f…ed up. 于是在周五下午的
时候政府又说他们要考虑撤回不能卖空金融股的规定。

********还是关于short selling**************

但是 market maker还是可以short sell给买股票的人的啊。然后swap desk 可以和marke
t maker 做swap ( e.g. total return swap), 然后再swap给别人，这不等于还是可以sh
ort sell吗？不明白，望指点。

*******关于政府救了AIG***********

真是英明之举，AIG真的不能倒。AIG很大一块是给债券做保险的，这样被保险的债券评级
也就和AIG一样高，一旦破产或者降级，大量的债券要贬值，所有持有债券的公司的资产负
债表的资产都要write down，空出一大的缺口，于是要去借钱来shore up balance sheet
。现在的市场本来就借不到钱，于是liquidity要更没有了。所有投行都要统统倒。

******关于现在政府救市和投行************

为什么不早点行动，救救雷曼呢？华尔街那么多人失业，会带动更多的人失业啊。是不是
以后就会没有单纯的投行了，投行都要和商业银行合并了呢？

******关于现在油价***************

为什么那么低呢？金子银子都很贵了，美国南部还有飓风，但是为什么油价反而那么低呢
？哪位做commodity的达人来指导一下？

******下面是生活问题************

怎么烧鲶鱼可以不腥呢？怎么处理特别腥或者有味道的肉呢？

请问美国工作的人401K都买了什么呢？我怎么每个月都在放钱可是总钱数还是不断减少呢
。

上班太久打字太多手腕痛，怎么办呢？

牛奶的问题：喝加奶的咖啡有没有问题呢？豆奶呢？（豆奶里有奶妈？）Cheese cake呢？

 

夏天马上就要过去了。好伤心。。。

 

六月七月八月都在考试，分别考完了CFA,SERIES 7和 SERIES 63。考试暂时告一段落。9月一日劳动节要好好出去玩。

 

夏天是我效率比较高的季节。湿漉漉的热空气让我觉得自己在茁壮的呼吸和生长。最喜欢夏天的夜晚在室外喝点东西的感觉，闷热里偶尔有一丝微风，一滴汗从胸口顺着皮肤慢慢地滑下去，特别真实的触感，空气里都是荷尔蒙的味道。冬季的时候则觉得很emotional，忧郁，苍白，发呆，怕冷，想躲起来，日照时间太短，每天上班下班都看不到阳光，进公司的时候，暗暗的光线里，旋转门上模糊的水汽里自己的影子一掠而过，觉得很漂泊。

 

 

 

 

乐乐说，有四件很重要的都要做的时候，可是通常只能完成两件：Work, exercise, sleep, social&serious relationship。 很有道理。

 

昨天，都在想我在做哪几件呢？Work是一定要做的，正常情况下12小时再加上上下班路上的时间=13.5小时，早晨出门前0.5小时，晚上回家换衣服+做饭+吃东西+洗漱+看自己的邮件1小时（一小时时间相当紧张啊），这样一天就去掉了15小时。如果想去运动的话，10分钟换衣服5分钟热身35分钟跑步15分钟拉伸25分钟腹肌手臂大腿20分钟洗澡换衣服吹干头发+10分钟从办公室到gym的来回路程=2小时整，这样一天就只剩7小时睡眠了，而且在不能耽误一点时间没空接私人电话没空处理任何其他事情的情况下，所以如果我常常一天只能睡6个小时，白天困得要死。

 

如果选择上班和social，一次吃饭最少3小时（连路上的时间），如果其他活动至少4小时，这样的后果就是第二天该起床的时候想死的心都有。

 

更不要说常常需要在办公室从6：40am干到10:30pm，那样连工作睡觉两件事都做不完。

 

上班的大家，有没有觉得时间特别特别少呢？

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
早晨的时候我们组纽约office和伦敦office集体在Bloomberg上聊天:
New York: New York off tomorrow, just in case you looking for us...
London: slackers
New York: we will be celebrating our independence, well...from.... you


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
很有意思的图：（black swan是去年街上很流行的一本书）
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=128320

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

晚上一个男人敲门，我还小心翼翼地把链条锁拉上才开门，原来是找错人了。
可以竟然发现，此男若干年前和我一起在新加坡交换，还一起去了马来。现在在纽约实习。
多年没有联系后，竟然这样又见到了。
不得不再感叹世界太小。

 

It's time again for the annual 'Stella Awards'! For  those unfamiliar
with these awards, they are named  after 81-year-old Stella Liebeck who
spilled hot  coffee on herself and successfully sued the McDonald's  in
New Mexico  where she purchased the coffee. You  remember, she took the
lid off the coffee and put it  between her knees while she was driving.
Who would  ever think one could get burned doing that, right?

That's right; these are awards for the most outlandish  lawsuits and
verdicts in the U.S . You know, the kinds  of cases that make yo u
scratch your head. So keep your  head scratcher handy.

Here are the Stella's for the past year:


7TH PLACE:

Kathleen Robertson of Austin  , Texas was awarded  $80,000 by a jury of
her peers after breaking her  ankle tripping over a toddler who was
running inside a  furniture store. The store owners were understandably
surprised by the verdict, considering the running  toddler was her own
son.


6TH PLACE:

Carl Truman, 19, of Los Angeles  , California won  $74,000 plus medical
expenses when his neighbor ran  over his hand with a Honda Accord.
Truman apparently  didn't notice there was someone at the wheel of the
car when he was trying to steal his neighbor's  hubcaps.


5TH PLACE:

Terrence Dickson, of Bristol,  Pennsylvania, was  leaving a house he
had just burglarized by way of the  garage. Unfortunately for Dickson,
the automatic  garage doo r opener malfunctioned and he could not get
the garage door to open. Worse, he couldn't re-enter  the house because
the door connecting the garage to  the house locked when Dickson pulled
it shut. Forced  to sit for eight, count 'em, EIGHT, days on a case of
Pepsi and a large bag of dry dog food, he sued the  homeowner's
insurance company claiming undue mental  anguish.

Amazingly, the jury said the insurance company must  pay Dickson
$500,000 for his anguish. We should all  have this kind of anguish.



4TH PLACE:

Jerry Williams, of Little Rock,  Arkansas, garnered 4th Place  in the
Stella's when he was awarded $14,500  plus medical expenses after being
bitten on the butt  by his next door neighbor's beagle - even though the
beagle was on a chain in its owner's fenced yard.
Williams did not get as much as he asked for because  the jury believed
the beagle might have been provoked  at the time of the butt bite
because Williams had  climbed over the fence into the yard and
repeatedly  shot the dog with a pellet gun.



3RD PLACE:

Amber Carson of Lancaster,  Pennsylvania because a  jury ordered a
Philadelphia  restaurant to pay her  $113,500 after she slipped on a
spilled soft drink and  broke her tailbone. The reason the soft drink w
as on  the floor - Ms. Carson had thrown it at her boyfriend  30 seconds
earlier during an argument. Whatever  happened to people being
responsible for their own  actions?



2ND PLACE:

Kara Walton, of Claymont,  Delaware sued the owner of  a night club in
a nearby city because she fell from  the bathroom window to the floor,
knocking out her two  front teeth. Even though Ms. Walton was trying to
sneak through the ladies room window to avoid paying  the $3.50 cover
charge, the jury said the night club  had to pay her $12,000 - oh, yeah,
plus dental  expenses. Go figure.


1ST PLACE:

This year's runaway First Place Stella Award winner  was Mrs. Merv
Grazinski, of Oklahoma  City, Oklahoma,  who purchased a new 32-foot
Winnebago motor home. On  her first trip home, from an OU football game,
having  driven on to the freeway, she set the cruise control  at 70 mph
and calmly left the driver's seat to go to  the back of the Winnebago to
make herself a sandwich.
Not surprisingly, the motor home left the freeway,  crashed and
overturned. Also not surprisingly, Mrs.
Grazinski sued Winnebago for not putting in the  owner's manual that
she couldn't actually leave the  driver's seat while the cruise control
was set. The Oklahoma jury  awarded her, are you sitting down,
$1,750,000 PLUS a new motor home. Winnebago actually  changed their
manuals as a result of this suit, just  in case Mrs. Grazinski has any
relatives who might also  buy a motor home.

 

 

 

前几天要用spreadsheet算一些hedging strategy的东西，条条框框的rules很复杂，我把
data sort了一遍又一遍外加弄了N个pivot table，却把数据越弄越多外加把自己头越搞越
大，最后实在拎不清了，跑去问一个director怎么做。他略微看看了下portfolio，说，我
们就取个中间值再乘个%就好了，按这些复杂的rules算出来的结果也不会有太大变化。


我当时就被震了，果然高手出马，连看问题的角度都不一样。当我还再纠缠于怎么把spre
adsheet里一个个单元格link起来及其一遍遍地检查是否formula都写对了的时候，他却能
跳出条条框框点化出精髓来。其实到底怎么hedge的问题，常常是个主观的判断，那些复杂
的公式到底有多少是有实质意义的呢。

最近对“纲”这个字很是喜欢，觉得它涵括了太多意义和哲学，纲常，纲要，纲举目张，
甚至有经纬阴阳,纲纪万物之说。

想到原来大一学会计的时候，复式记账法，Balance sheet一定要balance，数据一点都不
能有误差。后来学financial statement analysis的时候才知道有那么多的manipulation
，due diligence也只是“毛估估”，才明白那些会计的PHD为什么常常是学哲学出身，更
多的是寻求不同entity甚至是整个社会balance，而不再精耕细作于一笔笔数字。

周二晚去喝酒，碰到一个有趣的美国人。他会说些中文，因为他爸爸是研究中国古代哲学
的，所以他也在中国生活过。听一个金发碧眼的鬼子给我讲老子孔子感觉很奇怪。他说他
认为中国的哲学，不是国外那种“纯粹”的哲学，而更多的是包括社会的运行，治理，和
人之间的interaction。总之，可以概括为一个“纲”字。

零零碎碎地乱写一点。

 

在办公室要保持冷静

http://youtube.com/watch?v=0Mb1NzpSaBw

看一遍笑一遍

 

谢谢Jason分享

 

今天7点多才下班，我们组2个VP不走我也不敢走。别的组还有一些人，不过几乎全是印度
人，于是其中的一个印度人去买了一个披萨，我吃了一块，不是一般的难吃啊！！！
原来上面白色的不是cheese，是羊的什么做的，狂膻！！！怪不得印度人都在吃而唯
一的一个白人不吃呢，肯定以前也是吃了狂后悔过。啊啊啊！我顿时觉得被欺骗了，吃了
个热量这么高的东西还这么难吃。于是决定在回家出地铁时去麦当劳买个BBQ鸡肉大汉堡！
今天不减肥了！

下班的地铁上很挤。我紧挨着个亚裔帅哥，衣冠楚楚西装领带深灰大衣很正点，脚下是个

Barclays的包，专心地在blackberry上打砖块。长得象东南亚人不过是大肢的东南亚人，

也就是说身高不错。本来想搭讪一下可是他一路都在专心打砖块。

让我欣喜的是，帅哥尽然和我一站地铁下！！而且出地铁的方向也和我一致！我心里乐呵
呵顿时放弃了买汉堡的恶念亦步亦趋地跟着帅哥走。心里还想他不会和我住一栋楼吧。因
为听房东说我楼上住了个trader，我还没去拜见过只在心里YY多次。眼见着帅哥差不多就
走到我家了我心里美啊美啊，然后尽然他在就要到我家的最后一个路口向另一个方向走去
。。。我怨念死了，想到又没有买到汉堡，于是回家吃了泡面。。。。